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Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 12:11 am Post subject: Long-term GPS thinking
Elsewhere in this forum I have a thread about selecting a GPS unit but this is a slightly different question . . .
When I spec out what I want it looks like the minimum price I can get away with is around $500 and I may need to go to $800 if I want to get fancy. Given those prices I want to make a LONG TERM investment to justify the cost.
If I expect to own my GPS unit for 8-10 years, what should I take into account? Are there new technologies or technical (e.g., map database) standards that threaten to obsolete current units? What's the best way to guess which GPS companies are still going to be in business to service or support their units for the long run? Are there competing technologies (e.g., OLED -vs- LCD) that I might want to factor into the decision? How does the reliability of touch-screen -vs- buttons compare? Do some manufacturers make more durable/reliable units? How easy is it to change the Li-ion batteries myself (I'm handy with a soldering iron) so I don't have to keep sending it back?
Joined: 24/06/2003 00:22:12 Posts: 2946 Location: Escaped to the Antipodies! 36.83°S 174.75°E
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 3:00 am Post subject: Re: Long-term GPS thinking
plnelson wrote:
If I expect to own my GPS unit for 8-10 years, what should I take into account?
What you are suggesting is like wanting to buy a PC or a phone today which will last you 8-10 years. That just isn't going to happen.
Buy a decent reasonably priced system and accept that it's useful life is about 3 years, after which you will be wanting/needing to replace it. _________________ Gone fishing!
Joined: 26/10/2002 10:38:36 Posts: 789 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:23 am Post subject:
Second that.
You can buy a washing machine or cooker and expect them to last that long.
But not with the type of GPS hardware/software you were talking about.
Even 3 years is long. Though you can still use the ones you buy now in 3 years from now, you may want to change to the one "we do not know waht to expect now" by then. _________________ Pc-Mobile
http://pc-mobile.net/gps.htm
Technology will always improve so any GPS system will look wanting in a few years, though that's not to say unusable - if it still satisfy your needs then no real need to replace! Its just most people will eventually upgrade if their current device is useful.
Most people will say GPS systems/software still have a lot of quirks in, and still a few years away from being ready for mass-market consumer.
Some possible technological advances that may make whatever you get today obsolete.
Fuel cell batteries. A few years ago it was all NiCad and NiMH, then along came LiION. New technologies, like fuel cells, will mean better batteries, so most likely in 4+ years from now new devices will have lighter batteries that offer a stronger charge. As a result devices will have more powerful processors and so quicker more accurrate GPS apps and with more features.
Voice Recognition. Its here now on full blown PC's (and to a limited sense on PPC) but surely by 4 years from now it will be in SatNav. Get into your car and just say "Open RouteFinder, ..., find John Brown" It goes off looks up John Brown in its contacts, beeps ready, and you then say "start navigation", and your route is ready and off you go.
There is also research into autopilot systems, so maybe that device in 4 (or more possibly 8 ) years time will link with your car and offer autopilot mode once you reach the motorway. Not too far fetched (we currently have cars with speed cruise control and new models that apply brakes to avoid accidents), though I do think it will mainly be an assist for motorway driving rather than full blown "Minority Report" style cars.
Ubiquitous Computing. Upto present most of our computer based devices are distinct objects, but there is a lot of research into smart objects that have embedded technology to offer computational elements without you noticing. An item of clothing that monitors your health and informs the doctor of downturns, a fridge that keeps an eye on whats in and orders online replacements for whats used up, a mobile phone that charges itself overnight whilst its still in your trouser pocket and downloads the morning news for when you wake up. It could be that in 4 years time you no longer get dedicated SatNav systems??
Second that.
You can buy a washing machine or cooker and expect them to last that long.
But not with the type of GPS hardware/software you were talking about.
Even 3 years is long. Though you can still use the ones you buy now in 3 years from now, you may want to change to the one "we do not know waht to expect now" by then.
Why? I'm a photographer and I have some camera gear that's over 20 years old and takes BETTER pictures today than it did when it was new. (because film technology has improved in that time) I also have digital gear ranging in age from 1 to 4 years that takes just as good photos as when they were new. For the kind of photography I do (studio fashion and figure work) these cameras impose no limitations on me so there's no reason to replace them when something new comes along, say, with more megapixels. I only switched to digital because it speeded up my workflow, especially in post-process. The only thing that would make me replace my DSLR's is if they are obsoleted, say, because I can't buy memory or batteries for them.
If a tool meets your needs then why replace it just because something else comes along? Whn I buy a car I always drive it until it becomes too expensive to maintain or unsafe, which typically means 8-10 years, 130-160K miles.
So my question remains - how do I tell which GPS units are likely to be stuill usable over the long haul, and what are their achilles heels' longevity-wise.
Joined: Feb 01, 2006 Posts: 2543 Location: Rainham, Kent. England.
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:34 pm Post subject:
I'm with you on that plnelson. However, your device may well last 8 to 10 years with only the odd battery replacement required but will future software, updated maps etc, still work on your unit, especially PDA's? Not everything is developed as 'backwards compatible'. My 25 year old Canon camera is still working fine because film is still available for it, unlike my colour Polaroid camera which became extinct. Now with digital cameras producing pictures which are not far short of a standard SLR with a good lens, how long will it be before film is hard to come by? Personally I think in 8 to 10 years time Sat Nav will be standard spec in all cars and for walkers the mobile phone would have taken over from PDA's for 'foot' navigation. _________________ Formerly known as Lost_Property
And NO that's NOT me in the Avatar.
Joined: 26/10/2002 10:38:36 Posts: 789 Location: Hong Kong
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:34 pm Post subject:
plnelson wrote:
Pc-Mobile wrote:
Second that.
You can buy a washing machine or cooker and expect them to last that long.
But not with the type of GPS hardware/software you were talking about.
Even 3 years is long. Though you can still use the ones you buy now in 3 years from now, you may want to change to the one "we do not know waht to expect now" by then.
Why? I'm a photographer and I have some camera gear that's over 20 years old and takes BETTER pictures today than it did when it was new. (because film technology has improved in that time) I also have digital gear ranging in age from 1 to 4 years that takes just as good photos as when they were new. For the kind of photography I do (studio fashion and figure work) these cameras impose no limitations on me so there's no reason to replace them when something new comes along, say, with more megapixels. I only switched to digital because it speeded up my workflow, especially in post-process. The only thing that would make me replace my DSLR's is if they are obsoleted, say, because I can't buy memory or batteries for them.
If a tool meets your needs then why replace it just because something else comes along? Whn I buy a car I always drive it until it becomes too expensive to maintain or unsafe, which typically means 8-10 years, 130-160K miles.
So my question remains - how do I tell which GPS units are likely to be stuill usable over the long haul, and what are their achilles heels' longevity-wise.
In your opinion, there is no need to ask really.
To answer the simple question you asked, I can tell you almost all the new GPS you buy now will still work in about 10 years time. But I am sure you will want change it long before then. _________________ Pc-Mobile
http://pc-mobile.net/gps.htm
Joined: 24/06/2003 00:22:12 Posts: 2946 Location: Escaped to the Antipodies! 36.83°S 174.75°E
Posted: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:09 pm Post subject:
plnelson wrote:
Why? I'm a photographer and I have some camera gear that's over 20 years old and takes BETTER pictures today than it did when it was new.
There are plenty of cameras made in the 1950s which are still excellent units, but you can't compare cameras to Sat Nav. Optics and wet film have advanced very little in the last 20 years compared to electronics which have advanced beyond all recognition.
If you are interested in wet film then you can quite happily buy a 1960's camera which will give excellent results. Have a look at a 5 year old GPS unit and see what you get.
Sat Nav is a rapidly developing market and to be honest the current sat nav systems have some serious deficiencies. They take ages to get a fix (or they can't get one at all) and they lose signal when their sky view is blocked. In a couple of years they will come up with some clever new systems to overcome these limitations. Your old unit will still work, but it will suck.
Quote:
So my question remains - how do I tell which GPS units are likely to be stuill usable over the long haul, and what are their achilles heels' longevity-wise.
If you are determined to buy a sat nav to keep for 8-10 years then have a look at past performance of the manufacturer. This probably means buying one of the outdoor Garmin units which are pretty well build and robust. _________________ Gone fishing!
Why? Sat Nav is a rapidly developing market and to be honest the current sat nav systems have some serious deficiencies. They take ages to get a fix (or they can't get one at all) and they lose signal when their sky view is blocked. In a couple of years they will come up with some clever new systems to overcome these limitations. Your old unit will still work, but it will suck.
But if it doesn't suck now, why would it suck then?
Up until now I've been using the GPS unit in my phone and it works great except when I'm out in the sticks where there's no VZW tower in range. But that's probably not more than 5-10% of my driving. In the last month I've been using it heavily because I have a free promotion from Verizon and I only had it fail to get a satellite once, and that only lasted a minute.
So here's the math: The cellphone's functionality is similar to a Garmin Nuvi 350, which costs $600. VZNav costs $10/month so a Nuvi 350 would cost 5 years of cellphone GPS, and that's NOT counting the cost of map upgrades! The Nuvi works everywhere; the cellphone only works in 90+% of the places I need it. On the other hand, the cellphone means one less toy to have to carry around, charge, worry about breaking, losing, or having stolen.
Also, Verizon will continue its aggressive build-out program, meaning fewer places without coverage over time.
This is why it's important to make good estimates of the lifetime costs so i can make sure buying a dedicated GPS unit makes sense from a numbers perspective.
If you look at the GPS receiver itself and also how long it takes a unit to start up from cold, it is highl;y probable that units in 4-8 years time will be "instant on". Current units will still work, but you may be less tolerant.
If you look at PC's, then a 4-5 year old one is fine to still browse the web or use the same applications available then, but would struggle with modern day apps. I remember the boot-up times seemd fine then, but looking back they were minutes instead of seconds.
Going back to the OP. I would say get a unit with replaceable batteries, hopefully one that has generic batteries available (so you know they should hopefully still being made in a few years time) - a lot easier to simply pop out the old and put in a new one than messing around with soldering irons.
Maybe a PDA based system so you can choose what software to use - this would allow you to choose your upgrade path - especially if one stops producing newer updates for your level of technology.
Your bulky PND may well be fine in 4 years time but if everone else is using
would you still stick with your existing one or upgrade - especially if the new system was still transferable?
can't edit the last post, so forgot to say.
Your bulky PND may well be fine in 4 years time but if everone else is using ***HUD picture*** would you still stick with your existing one or upgrade - especially if the new system was still transferable?
I don't want a HUD - it's visual distraction - voice navigation allows me to watch the road and traffic and pedestrians, etc.
As far as bulk goes, as someone else pointed out, they are about as small as they can get because the modern ones, e.g., the Nuvi 350 are thin and all-display. So you can't make them smaller without making a smaller display, and that might be hard to market to most customers (although I'm happy with a cellphone-sized display because I don't look at it.
As far as boot/acquisition time goes, Verizon has a "new every two" plan that allows you to cheaply upgrade their phones every two years. And two years is pretty much as long as most cellphones in heavy use can last anyway. So whatever cellphone I upgrade to in 2008 with probably have a higher-performance receiver. But I've never had any problem with the time it takes my 8300 to acquire satellites.
The big advantage of a dedicated GPS receiver is that it works EVERYWHERE. The advantage of the cellphone GPS is that it's small, light, and represents one fewer toy to worry about losing, being stolen, or breaking. To me those two balance out pretty well, so I need a tie-breaker and that comes down to cost - cellphone GPS is $120/yr - so a dedicated unit is cheaper only if it lasts long enough.
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