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Helpless Speed Cameras Witness Huge Increase in Speeding
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RobBrady
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 1:09 pm    Post subject: Helpless Speed Cameras Witness Huge Increase in Speeding Reply with quote

pocketgpsworld.comThe Independent has reported that many of Oxford's drivers have reverted to their old habits of speeding now that they think that their local speed cameras have stopped spying on them.

The thing is, two of the cameras haven't actually stopped. For a five-day test period the gatsos were left running just to see whether the widely publicised switch-off gave carte blanche to drivers to start speeding again.

The drivers won't actually face prosecution as the initiative was purely a test - a test that caught 110 drivers travelling at more than 35mph along the 30mph A44 Woodstock Road. That's a whopping 18% more than those caught during an average seven day period.

The recent decommissioning of Oxford's cameras were blamed on government funding cuts. Oxfordshire had to cut 13m from its overall budget.
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h5djr
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But were there any more accidents.....

Or was the traffic just going a little faster.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They can't tell you that... It's commercially sensitive information. Rolling Eyes
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Guivre46
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I can do the maths [not my strong point - see other posts], then they logged 110 drivers exceeding 35 mph, when normally they log 90. In my distant recollection of statistics, I think these numbers lack statistical significance ie too small to draw a firm conclusion.

"Huge increase" seems a bit strong.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 7:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Helpless Speed Cameras Witness Huge Increase in Speeding Reply with quote

News Team wrote:
The drivers won't actually face prosecution as the initiative was purely a test - a test that caught 110 drivers travelling at more than 35mph along the 30mph A44 Woodstock Road. That's a whopping 18% more than those caught during an average seven day period.


Sigh. More lies, damned lies and statistics.

So they have a camera site which clocks 4680 speeding offences per year. That's an average of 90 per week. Some weeks, it might be more, other weeks it might be less. In good weather (Summer), light traffic (during the school holidays), clear visibility you will get more speeders. In the dark, rainy days of winter you will get less speeders.

Taking a 5 day sample and using it to declare that the number of speeders is higher than the average for the whole year is a statistical nonsense unless they can show all the data for the last year including the peaks and troughs in the number of speeders.

Really, all they need to do is keep all the gatsos switched on so they still flash and continue to run cameras in a small number of them. Then people will be playing Russian roulette and the majority of them would still slow down, not knowing if the camera was loaded or not.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with the sentiment about careless use of statistics, especially in the hands of the ill-informed or ill-intentioned, but I'm not sure of the criticism here. The original quote says
Quote:
... during an average seven day period...
I can't see that this is at all the same as Skippy's quote
Quote:
...average for the whole year...
There may still be a discussion point here, but I don't think it's THIS one!! Laughing
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BigPerk wrote:
during an average seven day period...
I can't see that this is at all the same as Skippy's quote
Quote:
...average for the whole year...
There may still be a discussion point here, but I don't think it's THIS one!! Laughing[/quote]Although I agree thet the 7 day period that the average is calculated should be the same 7 day test period, the article actually says hat they 'caught' 18% more prople in 5 days that the average 7 day period.
But my overall thoughts are:- Does this 'test' itself pass the 'so what?' test? Have accidents which the cam was put there to reduce, increased? If not, they were put there under false pretences in the first place. Shocked
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ahh, I should've gone to specsavers, M8TJT Embarassed (and so should whoever wrote the article in the first place). I reckon that to be an increase of just under 12% per day, a bit different from the 18% originally quoted. So Skippy's certainly right about 'damned lies and statistics...' Laughing (especially in the hands of journalists, who usually qualify as both ill-informed AND ill-intentioned! Twisted Evil)
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pardon? They caught 110 people in 5 days (22/day) where they caught 90 people in a 7 day period 12.85/day). That's an increase of a little over 71% (if my maths is correct). Why didn't they junp on this rather more sensational figure? Perhaps they also thought that it did not pass the 'SO WHAT?' test.
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Guivre46
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 10:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Over such a short period the numbers are not a good statistical sample. I'd suggest they take Sept/Oct/Nov number and compare it to the same period last year. Also the spread of speeds clocked would be interesting, and any accident information, such as day of week time of day, and whether vehicular, pedestrian, motorcycle, pedal cycle etc.

As has been said "instant' news drives stories, real information takes too long.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 15, 2010 10:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guivre46 wrote:
and whether ....., pedestrian, ....., pedal cycle etc..
Pedestrians and push bikes faster than 35mph Shocked Very Happy
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 12:22 am    Post subject: Re: Helpless Speed Cameras Witness Huge Increase in Speeding Reply with quote

Skippy wrote:
Really, all they need to do is keep all the gatsos switched on so they still flash and continue to run cameras in a small number of them. Then people will be playing Russian roulette and the majority of them would still slow down, not knowing if the camera was loaded or not.
It has always been the case that there are more camera boxes than there are cameras, so it always was Russian Roulette - when I was young, I paid the bills for putting up the first ones in Avon and I can't remember the numbers but it must have been something like one camera to four boxes.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 1:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BigPerk wrote:
I can't see that this is at all the same as Skippy's quote
Quote:
...average for the whole year...


Ahh, you are right. I have just presumed that the average 7 day period was averaged over the whole year.

The thing is that without having the full data for (say) 12 months, you couldn't easily say if it was one of the statistical ups and downs or it it was a real jump.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

M8TJT wrote:
Guivre46 wrote:
and whether ....., pedestrian, ....., pedal cycle etc..
Pedestrians and push bikes faster than 35mph Shocked Very Happy


Usain Bolt and Chris Hoy might be meeting there?
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 16, 2010 1:05 pm    Post subject: Speeding Pedestrians... Reply with quote

M8TJT wrote:
Guivre46 wrote:
and whether ....., pedestrian, ....., pedal cycle etc..
Pedestrians and push bikes faster than 35mph Shocked Very Happy


Halfway down the hill on the A6333 between Corby and Rockingham, there lies a Gatso ... (pun intended)
On several occasions, local cyclists have easily managed to trigger it (much to the annoyance of the car they've just overtaken that was travelling at less than the 30 limit) ... and on one or two occasions according to a bruised and battered work colleague, a pedestrian has triggered the same camera ... although in fairness, they only became a pedestrian shortly before being 'captured' flying through the air as they parted company with their racing bike! The moral here being: don't dismiss the idea of speeding pedestrians being caught on camera.. though I would have loved to have seen the pictures... and perhaps a second moral: be prepared to end up in a ditch if you try and get my car 'caught' on camera!

As for the original plot to this thread ... surely NO ONE believes any numbers in newspapers any more? It was long ago established that journalists are (in the main) innumerate as well illiterate.
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